Gaza’s Future in Question After Iran and Lebanon Ceasefires
Regional de-escalation could shift attention back to Gaza, where an ongoing deadlock over Hamas’ weapons and future governance continues to threaten the fragile ceasefire.
Gaza City – With fragile ceasefires now in place between the United States and Iran, as well as between Israel and Lebanon, Palestinians in Gaza are left asking whether de-escalation elsewhere will lead Israel to intensify its military operations in the enclave or encourage a more restrained approach.
Since April 8, a tense ceasefire has held between the US and Iran following weeks of mutual strikes involving US-Israeli attacks on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, as well as on infrastructure and US interests across the Middle East. However, broader regional tensions remain high, particularly due to Iran’s restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and a US blockade on Iranian ports, both of which continue to disrupt regional trade and energy flows.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is attempting to mediate efforts to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table.
US President Donald Trump said last week that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks following talks at the White House aimed at reaching a longer-term agreement. The proposed deal reportedly includes the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group and a key regional ally of the Palestinians.
The Israel-Lebanon discussions did not include Hezbollah, even as near-daily ceasefire violations by Israel continue across southern Lebanon. Israeli forces have also established a so-called “Yellow Line” marking territory under their control, similar to arrangements seen in Gaza. Since March 2, when the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalated, more than 2,500 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million have been displaced.
At the same time, the Israeli government has signaled its readiness to continue military operations in Gaza despite relative calm on other regional fronts, raising concerns among Palestinians that a full-scale escalation could resume.
Two main scenarios..
Some observers believe that Israel could potentially resume its military operations in Gaza as fighting eases on other regional fronts. Others, however, argue that a renewed escalation in Gaza may be used as a bargaining tool, aimed at increasing pressure in ongoing negotiations involving Iran and Lebanon.
People in Gaza see two possible outcomes. One scenario is that relative calm on the Iran and Lebanon fronts could encourage Israel to increase military pressure on Gaza. The other is that wider regional and international dynamics may restrain Israel from returning to the kind of large-scale operations seen before the October ceasefire in Gaza.
Analysts say Israel’s next steps may depend largely on Hamas’s response to Western demands that it disarm as a condition for advancing to the second phase of the US-backed Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan. This phase is expected to include the establishment of a national committee to govern Gaza, the potential deployment of international forces, and negotiations over the future status of weapons within the enclave.
Wissam Afifa, a researcher and journalist specializing in political and strategic analysis, told Al Jazeera that the relative calm on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts has increased Gaza’s significance in Israeli strategic calculations. He said the reduction in multi-front conflict pressure allows Israel to redirect its military and political focus toward unresolved issues, including Gaza’s future governance and the status of Hamas’s weapons.
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